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Marin County Real Estate Tracker — June 2019

Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
Living in Correction

The Bay Area real estate market is as complex and fast paced as its residents. We have been in a continuous state of appreciation since 2012, and we are now experiencing a correction (1). As we continue to live in this correction, we can rest assured that high demand and potential IPOs keep our market well fed and our buyers eager.

Single Family v. Condo

Condos saw a surge in median sales price (MSP) last year. However, looking at May 2018 over May 2019, the MSP of condos actually decreased 5.85%. Single family homes decreased in MSP as well, but only 2.26%.

New listings of single family homes are down 23.32% over the last 2 years. At the same time, new sales are up 2.54%. We might expect this lack of listings to drive prices up. However, overall listing inventory is up 42.05%, and closed sales are actually down 5.65%. Zooming out past new listings and new sales, we get a clearer picture of why the MSP has decreased slightly. New listings of condos are down 35.62%, and pending sales are down 11.59%. Even more dramatically, the overall listing inventory for condos is up 59.02% with no change in the number of closed sales. Given these numbers, the small MSP dip of 5.85% is actually a big win.

MSP Across Marin

The prices of single family homes vary widely across Marin. Many cities have a comparatively small number of sales, and, the fewer sales, the less reliable the MSP becomes (2). Despite this fact, if you’re in the market, MSP should give you a reasonable idea of what a home costs in each town.

Compare and Contrast

It’s always a bit of fun to see how Marin compares to its Bay Area neighbor, San Francisco. Since 2016, both counties have done quite well. Marin tends to be more stable, but San Francisco has managed to show higher appreciation.

Marin showcases its consistency in percent of list price received. Unlike San Francisco, the fluctuations in Marin are small and seasonal. The percent of list price received for condos hovers between 99% and 102%; that of single family homes rests between 97% and 101%. In December and January, these numbers drop, but they quickly rebound. That said, our agents have been reporting sales of up to 105% of list price recently!

(1) From January of 2011 to January of 2019, single family homes in Marin saw an increase of 62.92%. They saw a decrease of 7.14% in April, and rebounded a bit in May. From May 2018 to May 2019 appreciation tracked slightly down.

(2) For example, the MSP of a single family home in San Rafael—with 520 sales over the last 2 years—is more dependable than that of a single family home in Sausalito—which has only 47 sales over the last 2 years.

All Marin
Sold for $725,000
63 Porto Bello Drive, San Rafael
2BR // 2.1BA // Listed for $735,000
Sold for $1,850,000
10 Oak Mountain Court, San Rafael
4BR // 2BA // Listed for $1,625,000
Sold for $6,100,000
28 Teaberry Lane, Tiburon
5BR // 6.1BA // Listed for $6,495,000
Sold for $1,495,000
15 Vine Avenue, San Anselmo
4BR // 3BA // Listed for $1,549,000

Newest Listings »

Recent Sales »

Happenings Around the Bay Area
We made it through the year’s first heat wave, but it wont be the last! With temperatures rising, now is the time to take advantage of all of the Bay Area’s beautiful beaches. Grab your beach towel, picnic lunch and sunscreen and head to one of these 11 beaches perfect for a hot day. Don’t forget to show up early to beat the crowds and grab the best spot! Read More »»
The Marin County Fair is finally here! Every summer, Marin County’s town of San Rafael is home to the local fair. From July 3rd through the 7th, enjoy rides, games, music, food and fireworks. Learn more about who is performing, what exhibits you wont want to miss and more, here! Read More »»
Schools out for the summer! With warm weather on the horizon, it is the perfect time for outdoor fun with the whole family. If you are looking for something new to try, take a look at this list of kayaking and paddle boarding adventures around Northern California. Whether you would like to take a guided tour or go out on your own, this list will ensure you’re prepared for it all! Read More »»
David O'Brien
Broker Associate GRI
LIC# 01832087
Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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