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Marin County Real Estate Tracker — November 2019

Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
Our Houses, Our Homes

Real estate is a unique type of investment. The appreciation in the Bay Area is lucrative and the market is thrilling. But, unlike the stock market, a savings account, or even your grandmother’s antiques, this investment can also be a place to live, thrive, and raise a family. Because our houses are also our homes, it is important to pay attention to the long-view of the market. Right now, our investments are not living up to our wildest expectations; appreciation has slowed. That said, for those who own their homes, every payment contributes to increasing equity. This month, we will make sure to pay attention to the longview for those of us who are planted in Marin both financially and personally.

Types of Properties

Different types of properties appreciate at different rates. In Marin, we have condominiums and single family homes. Going back to 2012, the beginning of the Recovery, both have seen dramatic increases in median sales price (MSP). Of course, single family homes tend to be the most desirable and have a higher buy in. Since 2012, they’ve appreciated 71.05%. Condos have actually outperformed condos, increasing by 99.37% in MSP over that same time frame. Keep in mind, much of that performance may be due to the considerably lower starting point.

Appreciation – the Long View

Through good times and bad, Marin properties have continued to appreciate. Since 1990, single family homes have gone up 264.34% (that includes two recessions, one particularly “great”). This is not to say everyone does well. Someone who bought in 2007 and sold in 2010 would not be thrilled. That’s why, when talking to prospective buyers, we encourage them to think long term.

So far, in 2019, and over the last 24 months, the MSP of both condos and single family homes have dipped some. The MSP of condos has decreased by 9.23%, and that of single family homes has gone down 5.37%.

The Issue of Inventory

The number of new listings of condos is down 36.54% and that of single family homes is down 35.63%. This is nothing short of dramatic (and we promise we’re not being dramatic when we say that). At the same time, the number of active listings has increased. (1) How can this be? Well, as appreciation slows, buyers become more value conscious. The well-priced, well-staged properties sell. Others sit on the market. Thus, we see pending sales and overall inventory climbing…at the same time!

This inventory issue results in one inarguable fact: closed sales are down 27.19% from 2012 to 2019 (October year to date). There are still 2 months to go in the year, but it is unlikely that 2019 will catch up to 2018, much less 2012.

County by County

The price of a single family home in Marin falls between that of a single family home in San Francisco and that of a single family home in Alameda. Condos in Marin are actually less expensive than those in either San Francisco or Alameda. This presents a great opportunity to live in one of the most beautiful counties in the state!

(1) The number of active listings of condos is up 92.73% and the number of new listings of condos is up 26.21%.

All Marin
Sold for $1,940,000
107 Holstein Road, San Anselmo
3BR // 3.5BA // Listed for $1,995,000
Sold for $2,625,000
124 Paseo Way, Greenbrae
5BR // 3BA // Listed for $2,625,000
Sold for $1,049,000
7 Partridge Drive, San Rafael
3BR // 2.5BA // Listed for $1,049,000
Sold for $814,000
428 Calle De La Mesa None, Novato
3BR // 2BA // Listed for $845,000

Newest Listings »

Recent Sales »

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David O'Brien
Broker Associate GRI
LIC# 01832087
Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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