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Marin County Real Estate Tracker — September 2019

Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
Everything slows down in August. A time of sun and gone-fishing signs, we’ve seen this lackadaisical month play out in the real estate market in stagnant prices. Over the last four years, median sales price (MSP) levels out in August. The MSP of single family homes creeps up in May and June and again in September and October, but August hovers around $1.2 million. The MSP of condos bounces around a little more, but August provides a solid baseline.

Supply and Demand

August has presented us with some nuanced statistics. Overall inventory continues to grow, and the months supply of inventory (MSI) (1) for single family homes is 2.2—up from an MSI of 1.6 in August 2017 and August 2018. For condos, the 2019 MSI of 1.7 also demonstrates an increase over August 2017 (0.8) and August 2018 (1.1). That’s a total increase of 112%. All of this is to say that inventory is higher than it has been at this time of year in the past. However, the industry standard tells us that a balanced market (one with equal supply and demand) should have an MSI of between 4 and 6. 2.2 is still a very hot market.

Another statistic to note is that the leveling off of MSP, which, as we previously noted, is typical of August, comes at a historical low point in interest rates. When interest rates decrease, buyers are able to purchase higher value for a lower monthly mortgage rate, so we would expect to see MSP increase. Taken together, the increase in MSI and total inventory and the leveling off of MSP despite low interest rates indicate a potential cooling of the market.

At first glance, the market seems to be booming. While Marin is still a highly desirable county, and the market is certainly healthy, these statistics may be an indication of a correction to the previous wild growth of the Marin market.

County by County

Each city across the county has its own character. That said, with the exception of Larkspur, they have all followed the same trends this month: inventory is down (month over month as opposed to overall inventory) and MSP is leveling off.

Right now, and for the foreseeable future, Marin prices sit right between San Francisco and Alameda.

(1) Months supply of inventory measures how many months it would take to sell all current inventory if no new listings come on the market. In this case, assuming steady demand, it would take 2.2 months to completely sell out of properties.

All Marin
Sold for $492,500
100 Marin Center Drive, San Rafael
2BR // 2BA // Listed for $499,900
Sold for $950,000
202 South Street, Sausalito
1BR // 1BA // Listed for $895,000
Sold for $865,000
23 El Camino Avenue, San Rafael
2BR // 1BA // Listed for $839,000
Sold for $4,200,000
211 South Ridgewood Road, Kentfield
6BR // 6.1BA // Listed for $3,995,000

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David O'Brien
Broker Associate GRI
LIC# 01832087
Deirdre O'Brien
Team O'Brien Top Producer
LIC# 01990538
Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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